Friday, October 10, 2008

Severe Market Conditions!


In my years of trading, I have never seen such severe selling in the financial markets. Forget about fundamentals! Forget about valuations! These are just panic sellers but are broadbased in all sectors. I would say most participants in the markets are institutions and are just receiving orders and maybe some punters but most retail participants are sitting at the sidelines watching their investments vanish, at least on paper! Dow has been down 7 days in a row and again futures are showing a negative opening however, I feel we are close to the bottom in the short term. It is due for a bounce and any further heavy selling will be an opportunity to buy. YES! BUY! Be cautious though because it may not last very long as the liquidity crisis is not likely to go away so quickly even if coordinated efforts from International Banks pumps liquidity into their respective markets or cuts interest rates, however, I feel the point of capitulation is near or whatever you wanna call it! The problem lies in banks now as most banks do NOT even know how much they have to lend. CDO's that caused the subprime market in the US were made up of AAA rating bonds and much lower rating subprime loans but when packaged together, it becomes a BBB rating package that banks are allowed to purchase. Its a daunting task to unravel the CDO's and find out what kinda junk that banks have purchased once the subprime markets collapsed. Who are the losers? Everybody! Looking at what we are facing now!

No comments: